It is estimated that between 9 and 16 million Poles have contracted COVID-19 – said Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw on TVN24. He added that “if our seniors are vaccinated, it will be the end of the first stage of the fight against the pandemic.” However, he made a reservation that “this will not be the end of the entire war against the pandemic.”
In Poland, more than 1.4 million cases of coronavirus infection have been confirmed since the beginning of the epidemic. In recent days, daily balance sheets have remained below 10,000 new infections. Until Saturday, 436,963 vaccinations against COVID-19 were carried out in Poland.
READ MORE: How do I apply for a vaccination? GUIDE >>>
Rakowski: it is estimated that 9-16 million Poles have contracted COVID-19
On Sunday, in “Get up and weekend” on TVN24, Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw was present.
He said that according to scientists’ estimates, between 9 and 16 million people in Poland have contracted COVID-19. “It’s a large number, a multiple of what the official statistics show,” he noted. – We assume that 4 to 10 times as many people are infected daily as is confirmed by the tests – said the expert.
“If our seniors are vaccinated, it will be the end of the first stage of the fight against the pandemic”
Rakowski also talked about the impact of the vaccination campaign launched at the end of December on the development of the epidemic.
– So far, the number of vaccinations in relation to the number of citizens of the whole country is small. The dynamics of the epidemic do not feel this number, he explained. “It’s not that a million, two or even three vaccinations have the potential to slow an epidemic,” he added. He predicted that “the number of identified cases will continue to be the same, as if these vaccinations had not been there.”
– This will only begin to reveal itself after several million people are vaccinated – added the TVN24 guest.
Rakowski stressed that vaccinations will cause “one very important thing” in the initial phase. – The ratio of the number of hospitalized and the number of deaths to the number of confirmed cases will change. We are starting to vaccinate the elderly and we should see a decrease in the number of hospitalized patients and a decrease in mortality quite quickly. We vaccinate the part of the population that is most exposed to it, he explained.
In his opinion “if our seniors are vaccinated, it will be the end of the first stage of the fight against the pandemic”. – It will be a big, general, national “uff”, but not the end of the whole war with the pandemic – said Rakowski.
“The big danger is the new virus variant”
The TVN24 guest said that we are currently “in the course of very strong restrictions, thanks to which we managed to reduce the reported number of new cases to the level below 10,000”.
– We hope to reach around 5,000 at the beginning of next week. Opening schools for grades 1-3 should not change this trend too much. This is how it comes out of our model – he added.
However, he stressed that “you have to be vigilant, because it is a great danger a new variant of the virus that has been registered in the UK and there are many indications that it is more contagious. “
– We need to conduct research not only on the number of cases found, but also sequencing the virus genome to determine how many British variants there are in the population of the virus in Poland. This will allow us to better predict what will happen – said Rakowski.
Main photo source: Leszek Szymański / PAP