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The “Prime Minister B³aszczak” scenario is ready. Critical six months ahead of Morawiecki | Policy

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See the recording. Morawiecki: PiS always follows the Polish raison d’état

“Prime Minister Mariusz Błaszczak” – this idea was born just before the elections to the European Parliament in May 2019. At that time, PiS trembled about its results. Nowogrodzka put very strong names on the lists, but polls showed that the chances of the European Coalition, which was heavily supported by Donald Tusk, and Law and Justice are even. One of the studies – for “Newsweek” – announced the victory of the joint opposition list on the final straight, even by 10 percentage points.

Option with Mariusz Błaszczak moving to Al. Ujazdowskie 1/3 was then a germinating idea for a new opening with a new prime minister – in the event of a defeat in the European elections. Ultimately, however, PiS won the record-breaking support in the Third Polish Republic: 45 percent. The scenario was put on the shelf. It was dusted on the occasion of the parliamentary elections in autumn 2019 – the “Prime Minister Blaszczak” option was on the table, and it was especially favored by “ribbons”, but the PiS president stayed with Morawiecki all the time. Błaszczak was also an option in the event of Andrzej Duda’s defeat in the presidential election. In this campaign – as everyone noticed, especially seniors, whom he argued that the coronavirus is no longer a threat to them – Morawiecki put in a titanic effort. He also defended his position.

From all these critical moments, the PiS camp came out unscathed, with a very large personal contribution from Morawiecki.

Today, however, the United Right camp – looking at the polls and internal conflicts – is in the worst crisis since taking power, and the state is in the worst crisis, both in terms of health and economy. Hence the return of the name of Błaszczak as a potential prime minister, should Morawiecki be overwhelmed by these crises.

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In principle, one can not ask whether the “ribbons” want Prime Minister Blaszczak. It is obvious that for Ziobro’s party, the day of Morawiecki’s resignation will be a holiday that Solidarna Poland longs for. Anyway, a large part of PiS activists – who often miss the “Polish mother” Beata Szydło – would happily accept the change.

In the United Right, however – next to Solidarna Polska – there is also the Agreement of Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin, who is much closer to Morawiecki, although there are accounts of harms between them – for example the one from April / May. At that time, Morawiecki initially opposed the postal elections, but eventually – as soon as the PiS president stamped his foot – he began to prepare them and left Gowin in the cold. Today, the prime minister and deputy prime minister differ mainly in terms of freezing the economy. While Morawiecki was de facto heading towards – named or not – lockdown, Gowin played the role of the greatest defender of entrepreneurs. As we described in Gazeta.pl, there was a tension between them during the meeting “at the top” of the United Right.

According to our information, the PiS headquarters surveyed Gowin a few weeks ago whether he would be ready to support a change in the prime minister’s chair to Mariusz Błaszczak. Effect: yes, Gowin is ready to accept Błaszczak’s promotion.

Currently, therefore, in the ruling camp – PiS, Solidarna Polska and the Understanding – there is agreement that if Morawiecki “wears out” as prime minister, he will be replaced by Błaszczak. Nobody else is considered.

The current head of the Ministry of National Defense has its advantages as a candidate for prime minister: he is one of Kaczyński’s most faithful and trusted friends and he is also controllable. Moreover, in the role of the head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration and the minister of national defense, although these are huge and difficult ministries, he has never recorded any great disgrace.

The fact that the United Right camp is considering options on how to get out of the collapse was mentioned by prof. Ryszard Terlecki, head of the PiS club and henchman of President Jarosław Kaczyński. In “Trójka” he argued that “we do.” [obóz PiS] a plan to win back voters “and it will be” gradually implemented “, but” it is a process that does not take place over a week or two weeks, but must be spread over months. “Even if he did not mean a change in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, it shows that Nowogrodzka outlines plans and variants for the future.

Today Morawiecki is untouchable. Yet. However, there is a critical time ahead of the prime minister that will determine his future in politics in general. For three reasons.

Firstly, negotiations are underway on the EU package – the budget for 2021-27, the pandemic recovery fund and the provisions of the regulation making the payment of the euro conditional on the rule of law. It is difficult to predict the results of these discussions. Nevertheless, Jarosław Kaczyński and Zbigniew Ziobro expect the prime minister – and this is what the EU budget veto serves – so that Brussels cannot freeze billions of euros in Poland based on the assessment of the rule of law. At most, Ziobro and Kaczyński are willing to accept Brussels controlling that EU money is not embezzled and stolen. Morawiecki has to bring from Brussels some real success in controlling the rule of law, and not just a PR bubble.

Secondly, the health service is in a catastrophic condition, it has collapsed in points, although it is comforting that the number of infections – although not yet deaths – has started to decline. Nevertheless, the health crisis is a fact: in Poland twice as many people die every week than a year ago – not only due to the coronavirus, but also from diseases that were not treated by the epidemic.

Third: protests after the judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal on abortion. Initially, they were a shock to the government camp, but today in Nowogrodzka Street there is a conviction that the waning demonstrations do not pose such a great threat to the camp. In addition, PiS politicians hope – and some even believe that it will succeed – to introduce one or two sentences into the written justification of the Constitutional Tribunal, which will be the gateway to partially undoing the judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal: legalizing (not even at the statutory level, but some order) abortion in the event of finding lethal fetal defects.

Fourth, but very important: the economic crisis. And this is an important point from the point of view of the conflict over freezing the economy within the government. Gowin is the head of the Ministry of Development, Labor and Technology, and therefore responsible for the economy. Nevertheless, it is Morawiecki – in the past also the minister of development – who remains the economic “brain” of the ruling camp. The introduction of Błaszczak – an actuator who does not know the economy – into the Prime Minister’s office would mean that Gowin and his Agreement, positioning themselves as advocates for entrepreneurs and business, would monopolize the subject of the economy.

Looking at the confidence polls, Morawiecki is still in the top – he took third place (CBOS) ex aequo with the Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski. The prime minister is trusted by 41 percent. surveyed, and do not trust 46 percent. Only 30 percent trust Błaszczak, but he has a smaller negative electorate, and therefore also a growth potential. In turn, in the poll for Onet, Morawiecki is the leader. Of course, confidence polls are not decisive. However, they show that Morawiecki has not yet “worn out” in the eyes of voters.

We hear from our interlocutors in the United Right camp that there is no prospect of changing the prime minister now, but no guarantee that he will be in the middle of next year. If the prime minister falls in negotiations in the EU and the health and economic crises “use up” him, Błaszczak is ready. Only Mariusz.


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